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Occupational Medicine 2006 56(2):146; doi:10.1093/occmed/kqj045
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© The Author 2006. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Occupational Medicine. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org

MONITOR

Mortality and the economic cycle

Conventional wisdom states that mortality falls when economic conditions improve and rises during economic downturns. However, recent research has indicated that in fact the opposite happens and a paper by Granados in the International Journal of Epidemiology [1] adds to this growing body of evidence. Through the use of time-series data on total deaths, Granados demonstrates increasing mortality during expansions in the US economy between 1900 and 1996. His results demonstrate that the overall decline of mortality during the 20th century accelerated during recessions but that this effect was reduced or even reversed during periods of economic expansion with the exception of suicides. A series of commentary papers examine this phenomenon and the explanations for it. These include increased driving and motor vehicle fatalities and the negative effects of extended working hours leading to increased physical exertion, job stress and fatigue from reduced sleep leading to increases in injury rates. High accident rates in cyclically sensitive industries such as construction and manufacturing may be exacerbated by hiring inexperienced workers and speeding up production. Other measurable effects include those on lifestyle with changes in smoking, drinking, exercise and dietary habits. The phenomenon appears to be related to the rate of growth rather than growth itself which in the longer term is clearly associated with reduced mortality.


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  1. Granados JAT. Increasing mortality during the expansions of the US economy, 1900–1966. Int J Epidemiol 2005;34:1194–1202.[Abstract/Free Full Text]


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This Article
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